Sunday, February 28, 2010

Does this Deal Make Sense?

A quick way of figuring out if a deal makes sense is to ask the following questions:

1. How does this deal fit my strategy?
2. Is the price supported by current financial results?
3. How do I pay for this?
4. What is the right price, strategically and financially?
5. What are the risk factors?
6. Is the expected return worth the risk?
7. What are the seller's reasons for selling?
8. What is upside potential and what are barriers to their realization?

Each of these questions involve more depth, complexity and permutations, but these are the essential questions.

Friday, February 19, 2010

The Power of Prediction

One important lesson that I learned as an MBA student was that business abhors unpredictability. Business can confront and respond to all sorts of risks provided they are knowable and calculable. In fact, it is the stability of our system of the rule of law and a robust functioning free market economy, that enables businesses to plan, allocate resources and make investments for the future. The Healthcare Reform Bill posited as a massive overall of the healthcare system add a real dimension of fear and unpredictability for healthcare investors and owners, resulting in a slowdown of capital activity and thwarting of new development. The spectre of wealth distribution through much higher taxes and cap and trade tariffs does not help either. Now that it appears that the Reform Act as least as a comprehensive measure is dead, healthcare investors and those companies interested in expansion and development can leave the bunker and bask in the light of day again and get back to the business of growing market share and profitability. There will be challenges with the State Medicaid funding going forward but at least we can make decisions without the expectation that the Federal government will turn the industry upside down and change the rules of the game, let alone socialized overnight. That's the power of prediction. Racers, start your engine.

Mark Davis